MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error)

MAPE measures the average percentage difference between forecasted and actual demand. A MAPE of 20% means forecasts are off by 20% on average. In African FMCG, acceptable MAPE varies by channel: formal retail typically achieves 15-25%, while informal trade forecasts may start at 35-50% due to sparse data. Improving MAPE directly reduces safety stock requirements, waste, and emergency orders.